My 2025
Tops and Lows, ups and downs, and some consideration on the FMCG industry
If the last few years were defined by volatility and reactive scrambling, 2025 was the year the dust finally settled, and the landscape it revealed looked nothing like the projections of the past decade.
We have moved past the era of cheap capital and “growth at all costs” into a period of ruthless economic gravity.
2025 has been a year of uncomfortable clarity.
It was the year the industry finally stopped pretending. We stopped pretending that “loyalty” is a strategy rather than a statistical function. We stopped pretending that “innovation theatre” drives the P&L, and we finally admitted that the D2C revolution was, for most, a customer-acquisition cash incinerator. The comfortable narratives we told ourselves have evaporated, replaced by a starker reality: fundamentals are the only things that scale.
This year forced a hard reset on the industry’s collective operating system. The “messy middle” collapsed faster than anticipated, weaponised by inflation and a consumer base that has become brutally pragmatic. We saw the CFO effectively become the Chief Innovation Officer, enforcing “shrink-to-grow” strategies and demanding that marketing return to the discipline of math and mental availability rather than abstract purpose.
From the talent crisis exposing a lack of true marketers to the quiet takeover of AI in consumer choice, the rules have changed. It was a year where trust became the most valuable asset, and the divide between “nice-to-have” and “need-to-have” became absolute.
Here is my honest scorecard for 2025: a look at where the data vindicated my scepticism, where the market humbled my predictions, and the seismic shifts I never saw coming.
The Scorecard
What I Nailed
Inflation as Strategy: It became a margin opportunity, and consumers noticed.
The Reality of Growth: Penetration still drives growth. Loyalty remains a statistical illusion.
The D2C Reckoning: It isn’t the saviour many promised. CAC killed the party.
Portfolio Discipline: “Shrink-to-Grow” is real. The clutter is being cut. Reversing often, years of M&A.
Value over Volume: Corporate chasing value rather than volume for its own sake, unfortunately, investors disagree.
Context is King: Occasions beat demographics and categories every time.
The Return of Brand in 2026, as supported by a recent survey (in Europe) by McKinsey (but this trend is long overdue).
What I Got Wrong
The Speed of the Collapse: The middle of the market collapsed much faster than I expected.
The Path of Indulgence: It didn’t consolidate as predicted… it fragmented further.
The Returned to Volume Growth: I probably cheered too early; it was probably a glitch in the matrix.
What I Predicted
Route-to-Market Chaos: The traditional channels are disrupting.
Private Label Evolution: Private label is no longer just a cheap alternative; it has become “Brand.”
The Culture Shift: Global brands now need cultural relevance, not just physical distribution.
The End of Innovation Theatre: CFOs finally shut down the fakennovation trend (or is this another bug in the matrix?).
The Talent at Home: so many talented FMCG people lost their jobs in these market conditions.
What I Didn’t Expect
The Trust Economy: Trust became the single most valuable brand asset. Most brands have also lost it.
Green Fatigue: Sustainability fatigue set in hard: it’s value first, planet second.
The Talent Gap: A massive crisis: we have too many project managers and too few true marketers.
The M&A Show: few “big bang” deals, while my money was on portfolio pruning, and retailers acting like strategics.
The New Deal Flow: The era of “transformational acquisitions” has been replaced by bolt-ons with fast payback, and louder conversations about “split-to-grow.”
Stupid lists that I keep track of…
M&A I Predicted
Kellanova and WK Kellogg: Being acquired.
Poppi: Acquisition target.
Kraft Heinz: Significant movement.
M&A I Did Not See Coming
Kering Selling Beauty to L’Oreal: A significant shift in luxury beauty.
Keurig Dr Pepper / JDE Peet’s: The dumping of Dr Pepper.
Kimberly Clark + Kenvue: A massive consolidation.
New Princess + Carrefour Italia: Retail consolidation continues.
Unilever + Dr Squatch: A surprising bolt-on.
M&A I Predicted (That Did Not Materialise)
Coty: Splitting up.
Dr Pepper: Acquisition before the split (though I still believe this is coming).
Carrefour Polska: Not official yet, but very close.
Coca-Cola: I expected them to buy a functional soda and/ or an energy drink.
On an even lighter note:
My Top Content of 2025
Top 3 LinkedIn Posts
Pernod Ricard Leaked Reorg: Read here
Nobody is Thriving in Beer: Read here
Campari Planning to Sell 30 Brands: Read here
Top 3 Podcast Episodes
Building Brands in India (Vani Dandia): Listen here
Brand Power and Global Strategy (Teresa Carmo): Listen here
The Future of Retail Part 2 (Elisabetta Borghi): Listen here
Top 3 Substack Posts
The Five Levels of Understanding Brand and Performance Marketing: Read here
Fluent Devices in Advertising: Read here
How Marketers Build Deeper Consumer Connections: Read here
Some research that I am fine-tuning before the end of the year:
The second part of my chat with Konstantinos Delialis
Really sharp analysis on the shift from growth theater to fundamentals. The part about CFOs becoming de facto innovation officers captures what feels like the biggest organizational rebalance in years. It's intresting how the "trust economy" emerged as the dark horse variable nobody priced in, especially when inflation pushed consumers into binary need vs. want decisions across every catagory.