What's going on with Beer Giants?

Insights and Signals from the latest earning season

A quick note about me

I help consumer goods companies grow — when growth feels hardest.

I’m a strategy consultant and Managing Partner at Amati & Associates, where I work with CEOs, CMOs, and investors across food, beverages, and spirits to unlock value through sharper portfolios, better route-to-market choices, and stronger brand strategies.

Over the past 20 years, I’ve worked for or advised more than 70 brands in 30+ countries, from global giants like Campari, Procter & Gamble, Philips, Diageo, and Heineken to ambitious challengers fighting for relevance in crowded categories. My work often starts with a simple question: what’s still worth growing?

On this Substack — Growth, Brands and More — I share analysis, field notes, and reflections on what’s really happening in FMCG and CPG: investor trends, strategic pivots, and the hidden patterns behind brand performance. Expect clear thinking, not buzzwords — practical ideas for people who build, buy, and grow brands.

I live in Warsaw, work mostly across Europe and North America, and move comfortably between cultures and markets — Italian by birth, European by conviction. When I’m not writing or advising clients, I’m usually travelling with my family, watching my kids chase their next project or sports match, or exploring how ideas move between business, art, and culture.

The Divergence in Performance Amidst Global Headwinds

The third quarter 2025 financial disclosures from the world’s largest brewers —i.e., AB InBev, Heineken, Carlsberg, and Molson Coors —reveal an industry-wide operational theme: widespread volume contraction across core developed markets, offset by robust pricing strategies and strategic portfolio shifts. The core challenge for the global beer sector remains persistent macroeconomic volatility, which has become more pronounced, dampening consumer confidence and driving caution in full-year guidance.

While investors have rejected the “Value Over Volume” mandate, strategic success seems to be implicitly linked to it. While all four major brewers experienced significant organic volume declines — ranging from Carlsberg’s -3.0% to Molson Coors’ staggering -6.0% (financial volume) — the ability to translate pricing power and premium product mix into higher net revenue per hectoliter (Value) determined the financial outcomes:

• AB InBev demonstrated the most resilient operational performance, achieving a +4.8% increase in revenue per hectoliter. This robust value growth fully offset volume declines, resulting in positive organic net revenue growth of +0.9% and a substantial 85 basis point expansion in Normalised EBITDA margin to 37.0%.

• Heineken and Carlsberg adopted highly defensive pricing strategies but could not thoroughly neutralise volume volatility. Heineken reported a -0.3% organic net revenue decline, while Carlsberg reported a -1.4% organic revenue decline. Both firms, however, maintained market share gains in a majority of their markets, emphasising relative competitive strength.

• Molson Coors faced the most acute pressure, reporting negative net sales alongside deep volume declines. This structural weakness culminated in the announcement of a massive non-cash goodwill impairment charge, signalling a fundamental reassessment of long-term asset value in key regions.

The key signals extracted from Q3 performance are the need for premiumisation as a protective moat and the critical role of geographic hedging in emerging markets (e.g., Southern Africa, Vietnam, China) to counter softness in established geographies. Furthermore, rapid, successful innovation in the NoLo and Beyond Beer categories has emerged as a crucial differentiator for maximising margin expansion.