The drinks industry is shifting. Not gradually. Not theoretically. Right now.
Demand has softened across every major spirits category, from Cognac to Champagne.
Soft drink producers are confused about the impact of GLP-1 in the US and UK.
Some of them think that ‘healthier-for-you’ beverage trends can be addressed with a line extension.
Yet, soda per capita consumption is decreasing every year.
The United States and China, long considered reliable growth engines, are no longer behaving as expected. Distributors are trimming inventory. Tariffs are eating into margins. Climate volatility is becoming a key variable in product development. Even the strongest players are showing signs of stress.
Industry giants are often in denial.
They consistently downplay structural change.
They reframe change as cyclical. As a cyclical reset, when they are out of explanations.
They assume consumption will “normalise” rather than confronting long-term data showing steady declines.
They minimise less visible but longer-term cultural shifts
For founders, the pressure is worse. The pressure to grow, without capital. The pressure to stand out, without scale. The pressure to survive, without the guarantees that once came with “premium” positioning.
This isn’t a blip.
It’s a reset.
The rules have changed.
And the old playbook doesn’t work.
But that doesn’t mean you’re out of options.
Here’s what beverage founders need to know and what they should and shouldn’t be doing to stay in the game.
What’s Actually Going On
Several major players have recently posted their results. If you read between the lines, they’re not painting a picture of resilience.
Remy Cointreau’s sales are technically up, but only because they’re compared against a weak baseline. Demand in the US and China remains uncertain. Cognac inventory is being cut. Distributors are cautious. Remy beat its €50M cost-saving goal because it had to. Not because it wanted to.
Moët Hennessy’s update tells a similar story. Champagne and spirits are exposed to geopolitical risk and shifting consumer sentiment. Margins matter more than market share. Luxury is no longer immune. And local brands are holding their own, outperforming in markets where global icons are retreating.
Perhaps most telling of all: Remy dropped its 2030 targets. No long-term forecast. Just short-term navigation. A rolling strategy, not a roadmap.
The bottom line? Founders can’t look to the top of the market and assume they’re insulated. If it’s hitting LVMH, it’s definitely hitting you.
The Do List: Six Moves for Founders
Tighten Your Strategic Focus
You can’t be everything to everyone. Especially now. What’s your core idea? Your clearest benefit? Your most distinctive offer? Most importantly, who is it for, and why do they care?
In this environment, clarity beats complexity. Know what you’re selling and why it matters. Avoid vague terms like “premium” or “disruptive.” Be specific. Be sharp.
Prioritise Visibility Over Volume
No one will buy what they can’t remember. It’s a mistake to cut back on visibility just because budgets are tight. Spend less if you must, but don’t become invisible. The bigger risk isn’t being negligible, it’s being soporific.
Pick one perfect-serve. Own it. Make it memorable. Signature drinks work because they cut through the noise. Every drinks brand should have one.
Perfect-serve means focusing on one occasion. That drives building Category Entry Points.
Simplify Your Operation
Review your value chain end to end. Who’s making what? Who’s earning? Who’s blocking? If your partners don’t have a clear stake in your growth, they won’t support it when things get tight.
Efficiency isn’t about cost-cutting alone. It’s about removing friction and making sure every part of the chain is motivated to move with you.
Efficiency is the ability to stretch and accelerate investments in your business by focusing on what drives both top and bottom-line growth.
Build Financial Headroom
Raising capital is difficult right now. That’s the reality. However, many founders waste their scarce resources on slow-burn channels or unnecessary range extensions. This is what I call Fakennovation. Be conscious of what you launch.
Focus on what drives cash flow now. Invest in areas with a clear line to revenue. Protect your working capital. Do fewer things and do them faster.
Embrace Localisation
The myth of global brand dominance is breaking down. Consumers are increasingly turning to regional names with credible stories. Provence rosé is a case in point: holding value where others are losing it.
Think like Chandon: local wineries with global support, not global marketing applied to every market. If you’re winning locally, you have the right to grow. Not before.
Learn from Downstream
Your best signals don’t come from your systems or databases. They come from the ground. Talk to retailers, buyers, and bartenders. What’s shifting? What’s slowing?
In a volatile market, early signals are everything. And they don’t come from behind a screen.
The Don’t List: Four Mistakes to Avoid
Don’t Wait for the Rebound
Founders hoping for a “return to normal” will miss the shift. This isn’t temporary. The structure of demand, distribution and profitability is changing.
Even if sales recover, the conditions won’t be the same. High interest rates, shifting consumer priorities, and rising operational costs are here to stay. Design your business for the world as it is, not the one you remember.
Don’t Play It Safe in Marketing
Boring brands are the first to die in a downturn. Playing it safe might protect your ego, but it doesn’t protect your business. Marketing is about memory structures.
If you want attention, you need to earn it. Especially now. Be distinctive. Take risks. Tell stories people actually want to hear. You don’t need a big budget. You need a strong idea. (Upcoming premium article: Creative Divide)
Don’t Confuse Scale with Strength
The big players are offloading brands, shuttering plants and dropping SKUs. That’s not weakness, it’s realism. Scale doesn’t always equal strength. Sometimes it creates drag.
As a founder, please resist the urge to expand for its own sake. More products, more markets, more partnerships often mean more distraction. Focus creates strength. Bloat kills momentum.
Don’t Fall Into Ultra-Short-Termism
Yes, you need to make payroll. Yes, cash flow is tight. But that doesn’t mean abandoning long-term thinking. You can’t build a durable brand without investing in equity.
Find smaller, more innovative ways to stay top of mind. Make consistent choices. Avoid constantly changing course just because this month’s results are weak. Reactivity is not a strategy.
The Reset Is the Reality
This market is not forgiving. It punishes the vague, the overextended, the passive. But it also creates room for those who are clear, focused and willing to act differently.
If you’re a founder, the opportunity now is not to wait but to adapt. To reframe how you grow. To build a business that survives this cycle and shapes the next one.
The big question isn’t: When will it get better?
It’s: What does better look like now?
And are you building for that?